Slowest UK population growth outside pandemic since 1998

The sharp slowdown is mostly due to the ongoing fall in net migration, which has dropped rapidly since hitting record levels in 2023.

While there continue to be slightly more births than deaths in the UK, the gap between the two has narrowed.

The four countries of the UK are showing different trends, with Wales seeing its first drop in population for a decade, Scotland and Northern Ireland experiencing almost no growth, and only England showing a small increase.

The total population of the UK stood at an estimated 69.5 million people in mid-2025, up by 227,665 on the previous 12 months, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is a rise of just 0.33%, which is the lowest annual rate of increase since 1998, excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020.

It comes after a sequence of much larger jumps in population of 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024.

These were caused by a spike in net international migration to UK, which is the difference between the number of people moving long-term into the country and those emigrating abroad.

Net migration in the year to mid-2025 is estimated to be 222,900, down steeply from 651,700 in the previous 12 months.

Some 652,400 births took place in the year to mid-2025, the lowest for more than four decades, the ONS said.

There were 647,500 deaths over the same period, meaning natural change – the difference between births and deaths – contributed an increase to the UK population of only 4,900.

This is lower than the previous year, when natural change stood at 16,200.

But it is higher than the 12 months to mid-2023, when there were more deaths than births in the UK, resulting in negative net change of minus 16,300.

Projections published earlier this year by the ONS suggested deaths could outnumber births each year in the UK from 2026 onwards.

They also showed population growth continuing to slow and then come to a halt, with the size of the UK population starting to fall in the mid-2050s.

The ONS projections were based on current and past trends, particularly the recent fall in net migration and lower fertility rates.

This means they are not forecasts or predictions, and do not take into account what may or may not happen in the future.

A number of factors are likely to have caused the recent drop in net migration.

There has been a decline in people from outside the European Union coming to the UK for work-related reasons.

This follows policy changes introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour administration, which have tightened the rules for coming to the country for employment.

There have also been fewer arrivals in the UK through official humanitarian resettlement schemes, as well as an increase in people moving out of the country.

While England saw its population grow by an estimated 0.39% in the year to June 2025, Scotland and Northern Ireland both saw almost no annual growth, at 0.04% and 0.03% respectively.

The estimated population of Wales fell by 0.09%: the first year on year drop since 2015.

There were more deaths than births in both Wales and Scotland.

This is because the population of both countries is older on average than in England or Northern Ireland, leading to a slightly higher rate of deaths and lower rate of births, the ONS said.

“The average number of children that are born to women in Wales and Scotland is also lower than the rest of the UK, which contributes to fewer births,” the agency added.

Net international migration contributed to population growth in all four countries, but this was more than offset in Wales by the level of negative natural change – more deaths than births – which is why the overall population here is estimated to have fallen.